The global grain market is set to undergo significant changes in 2024-2025, driven by various global factors. Corn, wheat, and rice remain essential for human nutrition and animal feed, making their production and trade vital for global food security. Here’s a brief overview of the key trends shaping grain consumption.
Corn: Declining Production, Growing Feed Demand
Global corn production is expected to drop in 2024-2025 due to lower yields in countries like Argentina, Ukraine, and the U.S. Adverse weather and geopolitical tensions are likely to negatively affect harvests. As a result, global corn supply is projected to shrink slightly, which may lead to a slight reduction in trade.
Despite this production dip, demand for corn as livestock feed continues to grow due to the expanding livestock industry. On the other hand, non-feed uses of corn, such as food and industrial applications, are expected to see minor declines. This growing gap between feed and non-feed demand will shape the corn market.
Global corn stockpiles are expected to decrease, especially in Ukraine, India, and Brazil, while China and the U.S. are expected to boost their reserves. This supply-demand imbalance could tighten the global corn market.
Rice: Record Production and Steady Consumption Growth
The rice market is forecast to reach record production in 2024-2025, with major producers in Asia, including India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and China, expected to achieve their highest-ever yields. Favorable weather and advances in farming technologies are key factors driving this growth.
Global rice consumption is also set to increase, particularly in countries like India, Bangladesh, and the Philippines, driven by population growth and economic improvements. As a dietary staple, rice consumption is expected to continue rising.
Unlike wheat, the global rice trade is expected to remain stable, with India maintaining its position as the top rice exporter. However, exports from Thailand and Vietnam may decline slightly due to lower demand from Indonesia. Meanwhile, global rice reserves are expected to rise, with China and Vietnam leading stockpiling efforts.
Wheat: Record Production, Declining Trade
Wheat production is expected to reach new highs in 2024-2025, with countries like India, China, Australia, and the U.S. forecast to see substantial output increases. These gains should offset declines in the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine, where unfavorable weather has impacted yields.
Despite the increase in production, global wheat trade is expected to decline, with reduced demand from major importers like Pakistan and the European Union.
Global wheat stockpiles are expected to continue their downward trend, particularly in Russia, one of the world’s largest producers. As reserves diminish, tighter global supplies may lead to rising prices in the international market.
The 2024-2025 global grain market faces both challenges and opportunities. Corn production is expected to decline, but feed demand will keep the market tight. Wheat is forecast to reach record production, yet shrinking trade volumes and falling stockpiles may pose risks. Meanwhile, the rice sector is set to grow with record production and consumption, particularly in Asia.
As these trends unfold, global grain consumption is likely to rise, driven by population growth and expanding industries. Countries with strong production and well-managed reserves will be better positioned to ensure food security and navigate the complexities of the grain market.